For my first trend analysis, I was inspired by some trends of underdogs with low totals performing well in the NFL and NCAA Football. Per Josh Appelbaum’s The Everything Guide to Sports Betting, NCAAF underdogs receiving less than 40% of bets in games with a total of less than 55 points went 70-39 (.642) against the spread from 2005-2018, earning 30.37 units, an average of 0.28 units per game.
I tried to expand this trend to the Bundesliga, settling on underdogs in games with a total of 2.5 goals or less. My hunch was correct as these bets won 9.92 units, an average of 0.05 per game, from the start of the 2018 season-Wednesday June 3. I unfortunately do not have access to how many bets these underdogs were receiving. Because Bundesliga betting (and most soccer betting) relies on betting on 3-way moneylines (favorite, underdog or draw) rather than spread betting, there is no spread to even the playing field. That means more games lost and this trend went 60-133 (.311). So it is definitely not one for the faint of heart. Bettors will have to stick with it despite losing streaks, it includes a 10-game losing streak in December 2018. Although it’s not the most profitable trend, it profits and that’s good to see after hours of data entry. I will continue to update this trend with each gameweek.As always, I’m open to suggestions on improving this data and more trends to investigate.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sRlK3cP9bN5cr4a3E_cP9KSUASn5SZO0SmvpTkeN_A4/edit#gid=0
There are three games to use it in this Sunday:
Werder Bremen +260 vs. VFL Wolfsburg
Union Berlin vs. Schalke 04 +153
FC Augsburg +185 vs. FC Koln
Patrick English 