For my latest data analytics project, I looked at English Premier League betting trends. While I still have a lot of work to do on this project, I wanted to get something out to support the picks I tweet every game week. I have completed the analysis on a few trends from the 2018-19 season to 2019-20 Gameweek 33.
Premier League betting is very different from NFL spread betting because most of the betting occurs on the three-way moneyline. Therefore, despite having a losing record of 151-559, Premier League underdogs still made a 9.33 percent return on investment because the lines get so high.
The most profitable trend I found was home underdogs with a total of three goals or more, with a record of 20-77, returning 63.58 percent on investment. However there were only 97 of these games over 70 weeks so it is hard to advise taking this bet with its small sample size.
My best recommendation is home underdogs, which kept a record of 69-195, returning 32.10% on investment.
I will make best efforts to update this with each coming gameweek. I also plan to expand it to the last five seasons to see how profitable the trend was going back to the 2014-15 season.
Patrick English 